Byrum Brown Credit: (USF Athletics) The intent is not to be critical of the American. Rather, with conference champ SMU having left for the ACC, o
The intent is not to be critical of the American. Rather, with conference champ SMU having left for the ACC, only three of the other 13 teams had winning records in conference play last season. Read into that as you desire, though one thing is clear: there is a prime opportunity for teams to make a serious upward move and perhaps contend for a championship.
That brings us to Alex Golesh and his USF Bulls. If indeed timing is everything, then the coach’s first year in Tampa could not have come at a better time. Golesh went to work from the day he arrived at the Selmon Center in December 2022 and has not slowed one bit. As last season rolled along, it was clear the needles were pointing up as far as A-to-Z progress within the program even before the Bulls won their final game to clinch bowl eligibility and ultimately finish 7-6.
Read: Three USF Undrafted Free Agents Made NFL Teams Since Program Last Had Player Drafted
This is not to say everything is in perfect order heading into 2024, and who knows what happens between now and August 31 when the curtain rises against visiting Bethune-Cookman. After all, the Bulls, it should be noted, were not one of the teams that had a winning mark in league play last season.
They went 4-4. While breaking even was a bonanza compared to the mess that took place the previous few years, mid-season clunkers in consecutive weeks at UAB (56-35) and versus FAU (56-14) shall serve as evidence that much work still needs to be done. Not that anybody, certainly not Golesh, was questioning as much.
With so many factors lining up in their favor, the feeling here is the Bulls will break through in earnest and compete for a time.
Here is how I picked things to shake out in the American this season:
1. Memphis (2023: 10-3/6-2)
A four-year starting quarterback who has remained at the same school? Seth Hennigan is a rare species these days. He is pretty damn good, too. The Tigers’ all-time leader in passing yards (10,776) will be lining up behind a largely new offensive line, though an experienced one. While the tougher conference games (Navy, USF, UTSA, Tulane) are on the road, coach Ryan Silverfield’s Tigers have the combination of talent and experience to prevail.
2. USF (2023: 7-6/4-4)
Byrum Brown is the face of the franchise and there is no reason to think that he will not help lead the Bulls to bigger and better in 2024. It helps greatly that the two leading receivers (Sean Atkins, Naiem Simmons) and leading running back (Nay’Quan Wright) return. Continuing to tighten up the defense with the help of the portal was key to making sure the Bulls offer more resistance on that side of scrimmage on top of the improvement Todd Orlando’s unit showed last year. Memphis comes to Raymond James Stadium on October 11 (Friday night), by which time Bulls fans should have a good idea of how the season might unfold with non-conference games at Alabama and versus Miami as well as the conference opener at Tulane.
3. UTSA (2023: 9-4/7-1)
Though quarterback Frank Harris has finally departed, the Roadrunners are not about to fall from contention. Not with Jeff Traylor and what he has done in his four years as coach in San Antonio. Quarterbacks Owen McCown, son of former Bucs’ QB Josh McCown, and Eddie Lee Marburger have experience in OC Justin Burke’s system. A bit of a slip without Harris and the two leading receivers from last year would not surprise. However, plenty of experienced talent returns, including four of the top five tacklers.
Read: USF’s Byrum Brown Brings Sense Of Continuity To Quarterback Spot
4. East Carolina (2023: 2-10/1-7)
The feeling here is that last season’s 2-10 was a blip on the screen in the immediate post-Holton Ahlers era, and coach Mike Houston will have things humming again. The quarterback play should be vastly improved thanks to transfers Jake Garcia – yes, the same Jake Garcia who spent two years at Miami before moving to Missouri – and Katin Houser, formerly of Michigan State. A defense that allowed only 22.4 points per game returns plenty of experience. A manageable road conference schedule (Charlotte, Army, Tulsa, North Texas) while avoiding Memphis, Tulane and USF can only help.
5. Tulane (2023: 11-3/8-1)
Coach Willie Fritz is in Houston and quarterback Michael Pratt is in the NFL. Though the conference’s leading rusher, Makhi Hughes, returns and the top three tacklers from a stout defense (20.5 points) are back, there is otherwise much uncertainty on both sides of scrimmage. Coach Jon Sumrall arrived from Troy and should find a way to get the Green Wave to a sixth bowl in seven years.
T6. FAU (2023: 4-8/3-5)
While there is very little returning production among running backs and receivers, coach Tom Herman has an experienced, albeit far from a game-breaking quarterback in Cam Fancher, who arrives in Boca after three years at Marshall. The Owls’ strength should continue to be a defense that returns several starters after allowing no more than 24 points in six of eight conference games last season.
T6. Rice (2023: 6-7/4-4)
Former Temple quarterback E.J. Warner takes over an offense that returns much of its production. Plenty of production also returns on defense, including the top six tacklers. Hence, it is easy to see Mike Bloomgren’s team placing higher on this list. There is a tough conference schedule to navigate, though, with games at Army, Tulane and Memphis and home dates with UTSA and USF.
T8. North Texas (2023: 5-7/3-5)
The Mean Green were 21st nationally in scoring (34.5) last season and while it may be difficult to match that figure in 2024, the offense should still be strong with TCU transfer Chandler Morris at quarterback. Defense was an issue (37.1 points, second to last in FBS) a year ago, something coach Eric Morris attempted to address through the portal.
T8. Navy (2023: 5-7/4-4)
The Midshipmen shockingly have not been to a bowl this decade after making the cut 15 times in the previous 17 years. Offense has been a problem the past few seasons – 17.7 points last year – while a defense that yielded 22.4 points in 2023 should be strong once again. If Blake Horvath and/or Braxton Woodson can break through at QB, then the Middies could finish well up this list.
10. Army (2023: 6-6/Independent)
Army joins the American this year, the second time the program is conference affiliated. The Black Knights spent six miserable seasons (1998-2003) in Conference USA, compiling an 11-58 mark. Coach Jeff Monken has done exceptional work on the Banks of the Hudson the past decade, including winning at least nine games four times. He will be tested with a more demanding schedule and breaking in several new starters on what is typically a very strong defense.
11. UAB (2023: 4-8/3-5)
The Blazers allowed at least 40 points in seven of their 11 games against FBS opponents during Trent Dilfer’s first season in Birmingham. While an offense led by quarterback Jacob Zeno might again outslug a couple of opponents, the defense will have to improve by leaps and bounds.
T12. Tulsa (2023: 4-8/2-6)
Four quarterbacks threw 19 interceptions last season, a total that was second most in the FBS. The hope is Utah State transfer Cooper Legas can bolster the passing game under coordinator Steve Spurrier Jr. A defense that was not that good (33.8 points) lost seven of its eight leading tacklers with the portal appearing to provide only so much help.
T12. Charlotte (2023: 3-9/2-6)
The 49ers’ defense noticeably improved last season. On the other hand, the offense produced only 17.5 points per game, threw all of seven touchdown passes and was last in the American in pass efficiency. Coach Biff Poggi brought on former Florida quarterback Max Brown (one career start) to breathe life into the passing game.
14. Temple (2023: 3-9/1-7)
The Owls have turned in three straight 3-9 seasons and there is no reason to think things will be any better in coach Stan Drayton’s third season in North Philly. Not with quarterback E.J. Warner transferring to Rice and the top two receivers having departed. A virtually new defense may not be a bad thing after allowing 35.7 points last season, but there are too many question marks.
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